Introduction: This year, Europe has a strong demand for emissions. At present, it seems that PSA, BMW and Daimler are models that provide both PHEV and BEV, especially the latter two luxury car companies are focusing ON their own BEVs before they are ready in large quantities. The speed and range of PHEV model launch. And Volkswagen is now carrying the flag and continues to lead the MEB in a unique way.
Strictly speaking, for Audi and Porsche, MEB is not an option. In 2020, we will expand on the original basis and prepare for the development of PPE. Basically, all of Volkswagen’s bets are on the MEB platform in Europe in 2020. It is in the Volkswagen, Skka and Seat brands that constantly emphasizing the battery strategy and the effectiveness of the electric vehicle platform has become a kind of political correctness. Abandoning the epidemic, it actually contains a lot. risks of.
01 Update of battery information explained by Frank Blome
Frank Blome is Volkswagen Group components, Head of Business Unit Battery Cell. His PPT has a total of 9 pages and mainly elaborates on these aspects:
1) The scalability of the battery system: 7 modules are the lowest solution and 12 modules are the highest solution. Whether the 24/36kWh of ID1 adopts the current layout is still uncertain. There are several core problems here, as shown in the figure below. The 7-module solution shown does not have a high space utilization rate. The original plan for the lowest 8-module solution was to reduce the price of ID3 and remove one more, resulting in wasting the space of two empty modules. Compared with the current domestic 590 solution, it basically starts with 10 modules (tolerating a certain low Voltage), so there is a mass-configured power supply in Europe that can tolerate lower power than China.
Figure 1 Volkswagen’s modularity
2) Decrease in the cost of battery cells: I think there is a big problem here. Let’s compare two very important points: In 2017, Audi’s target price of battery cells for 2019-2020 was US$114. This It’s from Dr. Peter Mertens, CTO of Audi
Source “We have opted for a top-down strategy because most buyers will be found in this segment. Currently, one kilowatt-hour costs around 100 euros (~$114 USD per kWh) depending on the model.
In March 2020, at the analyst meeting, the price forecast for batteries at the Volkswagen analyst meeting was to control the cost of batteries at $100/kWh before 2025.
Source: Volkswagen is embarking on a mass production push to build three million electric cars by 2025, requiring 300 gigawatt hours worth of battery cells, mainly in Asia and Europe, he said. Ramping up manufacturing battery packs at scale will help the carmaker to cut battery cell costs far below US$100 per kilowatt hour by 2025, he said.
Judging from the current situation, depending on the price of the purchase volume, both Volkswagen and GM finally gave $100. In fact, according to GM, this price may come earlier. I think this price drop will directly lead car companies to enter the production of battery cells. The cost of battery cells has entered a bottleneck. No matter how much you have, the supplier will give you this price. Here is the chemical system related to the batteries. The batteries currently used by the public, mainly the first batch of batteries on the previous ID3 and the previous soft-packed batteries (E-tron, Taycan), are based on the 6 series, and the content is matched The ratio is 65% nickel, 15% cobalt, 20% manganese, and 811 will be imported from 2021. That is to say, from the previous 390 module cells to the MEB590 module, if the price of the cells remains unchanged, and the 2021 switch to 811, the annual reduction will be carried out according to 3 US dollars wh.
Figure 2 During this operation, the price of the battery cell will drop at a price of $3 per year
If we use MEB1 in 2019-2020 as the Pilot, the subsequent MEB2 may introduce silicon carbon anodes in 2023-2034 to increase energy density and fast charging capacity. This is more of an improvement in performance, and the cost of battery cells has not dropped a lot. .
Figure 3 Volkswagen’s battery strategy
The solid-state battery, as MEB 3 may be a longer-term plan. It is expected that the solid-state battery developed with Quantum Scape will not be included in the entire battery plan until 2026. It is not entirely clear whether the cost will bring about an essential improvement. .
02 Car companies intervene in battery cell production
Since both Toyota and GM have already intervened in the production of batteries, and it seems that doing it yourself is more controllable than buying batteries to control the price. In the meeting materials, NorthvoltAB, which it invested in, is a very important part. The battery cell company, which holds 20% of the shares, plans to supply cells to Volkswagen from 2023, mainly through the joint venture between Volkswagen and NorthvoltA. This start plan 16GWh (expanded to 24GWh in the future), the German battery factory with an area of 180,000 square meters will be the focus of the public. Volkswagen’s current MEB cell supplier in Europe is only LG Chem, and in the next step, with the launch of several strategic partners in Europe, the demand will be distributed to 3 suppliers (at present, Volkswagen seems to have 3 suppliers for large-scale markets. need). At present, the two added ones may be the SKI of the soft package, and the CATL factory in Germany. Whether Samsung SDI can still have a chance to see the follow-up price, the price rose rapidly at the beginning, and then the public found that these prices have increased.
Figure 4 Volkswagen’s battery factory
Summary: At present, Volkswagen’s MEB procurement strategy has encountered setbacks. The continuous increase in planning volume cannot bring about the imagined decrease in battery cell prices. The money that should be invested in battery cell production is still indispensable. Whether the strategy has tactical adjustments after a few months, I really can’t tell, it’s easy to get involved if you take a big step.
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